2025 Forged Steel Valve Export Outlook: Growth Amid Barriers, High-End Transformation as Key Driver
The global export of forged steel valves in 2025 will present a pattern of «structural growth + differentiated competition,» with the industry’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) expected to reach 4.7% and the global market size projected to exceed 14.6 billion US dollars. The Asia-Pacific, North American, and European markets will divide the world equally, accounting for 35%, 35%, and 30% of the share respectively. Among them, the «Belt and Road» 沿线 countries and new energy supporting demand will serve as the core growth engines, and China’s global export share is set to rise to 39.2%.
Demand shows obvious differentiation: the high-end segment is witnessing explosive growth. Special valves for hydrogen storage and transportation will achieve an annual growth rate of over 20%, high-temperature and high-pressure valves for supercritical units will account for 35% of the market, and the penetration rate of intelligent valves (equipped with IoT/5G monitoring) will exceed 34%, with unit prices commanding a premium of 120%-150% over traditional products. In contrast, overcapacity in mid-to-low-end small-caliber carbon steel valves will intensify, with the global capacity utilization rate below 60%, and price wars will pressure profit margins to less than 8%. Technological transformation investments and infrastructure construction in downstream sectors such as petrochemicals, nuclear power, and LNG will serve as the core pillars of demand.
Trade barrier risks cannot be ignored: the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) combined with anti-dumping duties will increase compliance costs by 12%-15%; Southeast Asian countries have raised local production requirements to 45%, and some markets plan to increase import tariffs by 5-8 percentage points; technical certification thresholds such as ATEX and UL in Europe and the United States, as well as intellectual property barriers, continue to rise. Fluctuations in raw material prices (steel costs account for over 35%) and exchange rate risks further test the resilience of enterprises’ supply chains.
The path to breakthrough focuses on three key directions: first, technological upgrading—laying out core technologies such as modified 316L materials and optimized sealing performance, and striving for international certifications including API and CE; second, regional layout—establishing bonded assembly bases in Indonesia and Turkey to avoid origin restrictions; third, product structure optimization—increasing the export share of intelligent valves and customized high-end products. Leading domestic enterprises have already achieved import substitution of products such as deep-sea ball valves with a 40% cost advantage.
